July 22 post: Stage 20 is a 43 km TT around Grenoble on a lumpy course (2 minor climbs) and a fair number of twists to it. It's quite technical. The exact course was used for the Criterium du Dauphine in June when Cadel Evans finished sixth, 1:26 behind the winner Tony Martin.

After stage 19, Andy Schleck has a 57s advantage on Cadel Evans while brother Frank Schleck has a 4s advantage on Cadel. Now in the leader's jersey after stage 19 on Alpe d'Huez, Andy noted that the Yellow Jersey has a history of "giving rider wings." Wings he'll need to beat Cadel Evans for the overall, but being a third week time-trial, the results are less predictable with attrition always playing a big factor. Pure climbers always do relatively better in third week time-trials especially when the Yellow Jersey is on the line.

In 2008, race leader Carlos Sastre had a 1:34 advantage on 4th place Cadel Evans going into the final TT after Sastre won Alpe d'Huez by more than 2 minutes on Stage 17. Evans was only able to shave 29s off Sastre's lead and settled for 2nd overall in Paris. (Sastre had the Yellow Jersey wings that day.) On the other hand, Frank Schleck was virtually tied with Cadel on GC that year and lost three minutes in the final TT.

So this year's finish to the Tour is very much like 2008, but Cadel Evans will be hoping it's more like 1989 and a Greg LeMond-like outcome this time. — Steve

Stage 20 TT Start Order and Times (CET) — biciciclismo
Evans positioned for first Tour de France win — cyclingweekly.co.uk
Video: Andy Rihs says Cadel Evans will win Tour in the final time trial — velonation
Schleck confident of Tour de France victory — cyclingnews
Recent time trial results from the Tour’s top 10 riders — velonews
It’s gonna be a tight time trial to decide the Tour — velonews
Big Photos from 2011 Criterium du Dauphine TT (same Grenoble course) — sirotti/reuters/flockton